-£2.4k at risk
Meta Prospecting - Quick Start softened below payback while July retention trailed baseline. Pause the campaign before more low-intent spend accrues.
Meta Quick Start ROAS softened to 0.82x.
Meta Ads reports £2,412 spend against 0.82x ROAS in the latest comparable window, with conversion value down £1,980 versus the prior day.
Confidence: 88%. The paid signal and the retention signal point at the same cohort. The strongest caveat is sample age, so the recommended action is a reversible pause.
July M1 retention trailed baseline by 6.6pts.
M1 retention was 21.8% versus a 28.4% recent baseline, an exact -6.6pts movement across 412 cohort users.
Confidence: 82%. The cohort is large enough to investigate and the retention decline is paired with a lifecycle engagement decline.
No approved action was useful enough to score yet. Treat today's campaign pause as the first decision to test.
I would pause the spend first, then let the retention read decide whether CRM needs to move.