Signal over Noise bases media budget calls on cohort economics instead of platform-reported ROAS. It rebuilds blended CAC and cohort LTV from raw Shopify, subscription and ad data, flags when a campaign is feeding cohorts that churn, and pauses or scales spend only after your approval, with one-click reverse on every move.By Tushar Kaul, Co-Founder · Published 22 September 2026 · Updated 26 October 2026
THE JOB
Why does Meta ROAS not match revenue?
The platform grades its own homework. A campaign looks efficient in Ads Manager while feeding a cohort that churns at day 12, and nobody sees it until the blended number sours.Meta claims the order, Google claims the same order, the subscription platform counts it as a reactivation. Blended CAC moves and you have an afternoon to explain whether it is real.
ONE NUMBER
What changes when the budget call runs on cohort LTV?
Cohort LTV forecast within 3.6% of actual at week four, in one engagement.
Spend decisions that used to wait on three, six and twelve months of actuals run on a four-week forecast, per cohort, cross-checked against orders and subscriptions rather than any platform’s attribution.
Forecast error at week four
3.6%
A measured result, not a model. UK D2C subscription health brand, seven-figure monthly acquisition spend, under NDA.
HOW IT HELPS
How does Signal over Noise help a media buyer?
Budget calls on cohort economics
Blended CAC and predicted LTV per cohort, not per-platform attribution.
Churn-aware scaling
Get flagged when a campaign feeds cohorts that churn above baseline.
Approved, reversible moves
Pause or scale with a stated expected effect and a one-click reverse.
No more spreadsheet stitching
Shopify, Recharge, Meta and Google reconciled into one number.
PROPOSE · APPROVE · EXECUTE · REVERSE
When should I pause or scale a campaign?
The walk-through is the homepage example: day-12 churn on the July TikTok cohort running at 2.3x baseline, traced to the Quick Start campaign, a pause proposed with its expected effect, one approval, reversible for 14 days.
01
Propose
Each move arrives with its evidence and its expected effect, cited to source.
02
Approve
You approve, change or reject. Permissions are role-scoped: spending and publishing are separate rights.
03
Execute
The approved move runs in the system it belongs to. No copy-paste, no handover.
04
Reverse
One click puts it back, and the log keeps who approved it, when, and on what evidence.
AWAITING APPROVAL · META ADS2.3x
Pause the Quick Start campaign.Day-12 churn on the July TikTok cohort is running 2.3x baseline, and this campaign is where it enters.
Pulse · Larkmoor Supplements
ChangesCampaign status → paused
InMeta Ads · Quick Start, 2 ad sets
ExpectedDay-12 churn on new cohorts back to baseline within two weeks
ReversibleOne click, for 14 days
Awaiting your approval
RECHARGE · META ADS · KLAVIYO — CONFIDENCE HIGH
Illustrative example on invented brands. The figures are not from a customer.
MEASURED
What has it measured on acquisition spend?
A measured result
Core connection in 30 minutes.
Core connection takes 30 minutes for the standard subscription stack, and the first approved moves run inside two weeks. The standard stack is Shopify, Klaviyo, the subscription platform, Meta and Google.
Core connection
30 min
FAQ
What do media buyers ask before they connect an account?
Blended CAC is total acquisition spend divided by the new customers acquired in the period, rebuilt from raw spend and order data on one governed definition rather than taken from any single ad platform’s attribution.
No. There is no auto-execution: it proposes the pause with its evidence and expected effect, you approve, it executes in the ad account, and you can reverse it in one click for 14 days.
Cohort churn at 2.3x the baseline for that cohort’s age, traced back to the campaign that acquired it. The flag names the campaign and the ad set, not just the aggregate, so the proposed move lands where the churn enters.
Meta, Google and TikTok, alongside Shopify, Klaviyo and Recharge, so spend is cross-checked against orders and subscriptions rather than each platform’s own attribution.
No. It sits above Ads Manager and executes approved moves inside it. Budgets, statuses and ad sets change in the account you already run.
Cohort LTV is the contribution a group of customers acquired in the same period has generated to date, built from their real order and subscription history. A cohort LTV forecast projects that curve forward; in one engagement it was measured within 3.6% of actual at week four.
Budget calls on cohort economics, not platform ROAS.